The week in one page
This week’s rankings describe a divided landscape rather than a market moving uniformly in one direction. Of 876 tracked markets, 35 are classified as hot, 434 as watch, and 407 as cool. The largest group is watch, but nearly as many markets are cool; the hot group remains comparatively small. The range from Cedar Park’s leading estimate to Newark’s lagging estimate underscores how different local rankings can be. (Metro Analytics rankings, 2026-10-12)
| Trend | Markets | Share | Average estimate |
|---|
| Hot | 35 | 4% | +7.8% |
| Watch | 434 | 50% | +2.2% |
| Cool | 407 | 46% | -2% |
The hot count was unchanged from the previous comparison in the supplied figures. Meanwhile, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.4% on 2026-10-15, unchanged week over week. Redfin’s national figures for the period ending 2026-10-11 show sale prices and inventory above year-ago levels, while pending sales were below them. Taken together, the measures point to meaningful variation across local rankings and national housing indicators—not a single simple signal. (Metro Analytics rankings; FRED; Redfin Housing Market Tracker)
Where markets are running hot
The leading markets are spread across several states, with Cedar Park, Texas, at the top of the ranking. The other leaders cluster between estimates of 8.6% and 9.0%. State averages provide a broader view: Minnesota leads the listed state estimates, followed by Maryland, Nebraska, Illinois, and Kansas. These state figures are averages of the ranking model, so they complement rather than replace the individual market estimates. (Metro Analytics composite market rankings)
| Leading market | Estimate |
|---|
| Cedar Park, TX | +9.2% |
| Bolingbrook, IL | +9.0% |
| O'Fallon, MO | +9.0% |
| Maple Grove, MN | +9.0% |
| Flower Mound, TX | +9.0% |
| Levittown, PA | +8.7% |
| Bowie, MD | +8.6% |
| Olathe, KS | +8.6% |
| State | Average ranking estimate |
|---|
| MN | +5.0% |
| MD | +4.0% |
| NE | +3.8% |
| IL | +3.7% |
| KS | +3.1% |
| MI | +2.4% |
| WI | +2.4% |
| MO | +2.3% |
The 4% hot-market share is notably smaller than the watch and cool shares. That distribution matters when interpreting a list of leaders: strong estimates at the top coexist with a much larger set of markets assigned to other categories. Minnesota’s +5.0% state average is the highest among the states shown, while Missouri’s +2.3% is the lowest in this displayed group; both remain positive estimates. (Metro Analytics composite market rankings)
Where markets are cooling
Newark, New Jersey, has the lowest market estimate in this week’s ranking, followed closely by Hemet and Paradise. The laggard list includes markets in California, Nevada, Florida, and Massachusetts, among others. All eight listed laggards have negative estimates, while the overall cool category averages -2%. State averages shown in the data remain positive, so those state-level figures should not be mistaken for estimates of every market within each state. (Metro Analytics composite market rankings)
| Lagging market | Estimate |
|---|
| Newark, NJ | -6.0% |
| Hemet, CA | -5.9% |
| Paradise, NV | -5.8% |
| Sunrise Manor, NV | -5.5% |
| North Miami, FL | -5.4% |
| Everett, MA | -5.4% |
| East Los Angeles, CA | -5.4% |
| Miami, FL | -5.3% |
The bottom market estimate is 15.2 percentage points below Cedar Park’s top estimate, comparing -6.0% with +9.2%. That spread illustrates the importance of local comparison: statewide averages and national measures can conceal sharply different market rankings. The cool category contains 407 markets, or 46% of the tracked total, close to the watch group’s 50% share. (Metro Analytics rankings, 2026-10-12)
Mortgage rates and the macro backdrop
The 30-year fixed rate rose through the observations listed from late August into October, reaching 7.4% and then holding there for the latest week. The 15-year rate edged down week over week. For the other indicators, the latest supplied observations show increases from their previous readings in the federal funds rate, CPI inflation, and unemployment; year-ago comparisons differ by measure. No year-ago mortgage-rate value is supplied, so none is inferred here. (FRED)
| Indicator | Latest observation | Previous value | Year-ago value | Change from previous |
|---|
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate, 2026-10-15 | 7.40% | 7.40% | Not supplied | 0.00 percentage points |
| 15-year fixed mortgage rate, 2026-10-15 | 6.71% | 6.73% | Not supplied | -0.02 percentage points |
| Federal funds rate, 2026-09-01 | 3.75% | 3.63% | 4.22% | +0.12 percentage points |
| CPI inflation, 2026-09-01 | 4.02% | 3.71% | 3.02% | +0.31 percentage points |
The 30-year series begins at 6.66% on 08-27 and moves upward across the listed weekly observations, reaching 7.40% on 10-08 and remaining at 7.40% on 10-15. The 15-year rate’s latest value is 6.71%, down from 6.73% previously. Compared with year ago, the federal funds rate is 0.47 percentage points lower, CPI inflation is 1.00 percentage point higher, and unemployment is 0.2 percentage points lower. These are comparisons of the supplied values, not a forecast of how rates or housing markets will move. (FRED, MORTGAGE30US, MORTGAGE15US, FEDFUNDS, CPIAUCSL)
What the Redfin tracker shows
Redfin’s national data for the period ending 2026-10-11 show a sale price of $391,113, inventory of 1,574,659, and 279,671 pending sales. Compared with the year-ago values, sale price and inventory were higher, while pending sales were lower. Those national directions sit alongside substantial metro-level differences in sale-price changes. (Redfin Housing Market Tracker, 2026-10-11)
| National measure | Latest value | Year-over-year change |
|---|
| Sale price | $391,113 | +0.55% |
| Inventory | 1,574,659 | +1.94% |
| Pending sales | 279,671 | -12.66% |
San Francisco is the fastest metro in the supplied comparison, with sale prices up 18.14% year over year. Detroit follows at +9.37%, and West Palm Beach at +7.78%. Seattle is the slowest, at -6.32%, with San Jose and Orlando also negative. The list includes positive and negative results, rather than one uniform metro pattern. (Redfin Housing Market Tracker)
| Fastest metros | Sale-price change | Slowest metros | Sale-price change |
|---|
| San Francisco, CA metro area | +18.14% | Anaheim, CA metro area | -2.09% |
| Detroit, MI metro area | +9.37% | Charlotte, NC metro area | -2.31% |
| West Palm Beach, FL metro area | +7.78% | Orlando, FL metro area | -3.39% |
| Chicago, IL metro area | +5.15% | San Jose, CA metro area | -4.85% |
| Newark, NJ metro area | +5.07% | Seattle, WA metro area | -6.32% |
What to watch next
The figures invite market-by-market comparison. Rankings identify where estimates are strongest or weakest, state averages give another level of context, and Redfin’s metro data track sale-price changes alongside national price, inventory, and pending-sale measures. Mortgage rates are also worth monitoring: the 30-year series ended at 7.4%, while the 15-year reading moved slightly lower. The supplied data do not establish what comes next, but they show why a national headline alone may not describe an individual market. (Metro Analytics rankings; FRED; Redfin Housing Market Tracker)
For someone comparing markets, a practical approach is to check the local estimate and its trend category, then look at the relevant state average and Redfin metro direction. Consider those alongside the national inventory and pending-sales figures and the current mortgage readings. Cedar Park and Newark illustrate the ranking spread, while San Francisco and Seattle mark the opposite ends of the Redfin metro comparison. Comparing these measures together gives a more grounded view than relying on any one ranking or national figure.