The week in one page
The October 23 Metro Analytics run shows a market map divided among a small hot group, a larger watch group, and a substantial cool group. Cedar Park, Texas, leads the market estimates, while Newark, New Jersey, is at the bottom. The latest Redfin figures add a national perspective: sale prices and inventory were higher year over year, while pending sales were lower. These measures describe different aspects of the market, so together they point to variation rather than a single national direction.
| Measure | Latest reading |
|---|
| Markets tracked | 876 |
| Hot / watch / cool markets | 35 / 434 / 407 |
| Hot-market count change | 0 |
| Highest market estimate | Cedar Park, TX: 9.2 |
| Lowest market estimate | Newark, NJ: -6.0 |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate, 2026-10-22 | 7.32% |
| Redfin median sale price, period ending 2026-10-18 | $390,614; +0.16% year over year |
| Redfin inventory, period ending 2026-10-18 | 1,572,024; +2.01% year over year |
| Redfin pending sales, period ending 2026-10-18 | 270,020; -14.44% year over year |
(Metro Analytics rankings; FRED; Redfin Housing Market Tracker)
Where markets are running hot
The hot category contains 35 of the 876 tracked markets, or 4% of the total, with an average estimate of +7.8%. Its count was unchanged from the previous run. The leading markets are spread across several states, while Minnesota has the highest state average among the state estimates provided. These figures show where the ranking model is strongest; they do not mean every market in a leading state has the same estimate.
| Hot-market leader | Estimate |
|---|
| Cedar Park, TX | 9.2 |
| Bolingbrook, IL | 9.0 |
| Flower Mound, TX | 9.0 |
| Maple Grove, MN | 9.0 |
| O'Fallon, MO | 9.0 |
| Levittown, PA | 8.7 |
| Lakeville, MN | 8.6 |
| Bowie, MD | 8.6 |
The available state averages are all positive. Minnesota leads at 5.0, followed by Maryland at 4.0 and Nebraska at 3.8. Illinois is at 3.7, Kansas at 3.1, Michigan and Wisconsin at 2.4 each, and Missouri at 2.3. The state list is limited to the estimates supplied for this run.
| State | Average estimate |
|---|
| MN | 5.0 |
| MD | 4.0 |
| NE | 3.8 |
| IL | 3.7 |
| KS | 3.1 |
| MI | 2.4 |
| WI | 2.4 |
| MO | 2.3 |
(Metro Analytics composite market rankings, 2026-10-19)
Where markets are cooling
Cooling markets account for 407 of the tracked markets, or 46%, and average -2.0% in the market-mix summary. That is much larger than the hot group, though the watch category remains the biggest segment. Newark, New Jersey, is the lowest-ranked individual market, and the laggard list also includes locations in California, Nevada, Florida, and Massachusetts. The reported state averages do not include negative values, so they cannot be used to identify a cooling-state leader or laggard.
| Cooling-market laggard | Estimate |
|---|
| Newark, NJ | -6.0 |
| Hemet, CA | -5.9 |
| Paradise, NV | -5.8 |
| Sunrise Manor, NV | -5.5 |
| North Miami, FL | -5.4 |
| Everett, MA | -5.4 |
| East Los Angeles, CA | -5.4 |
| Miami, FL | -5.3 |
The middle category deserves attention too: 434 markets, or 50%, are classified as watch, with an average estimate of +2.2%. That makes the broad distribution less binary than a simple hot-versus-cool reading. A market in the watch group is not among the hot or cool categories in this ranking, while the state averages listed above remain a separate summary across states.
| Trend group | Markets | Share | Average estimate |
|---|
| Hot | 35 | 4% | +7.8% |
| Watch | 434 | 50% | +2.2% |
| Cool | 407 | 46% | -2.0% |
(Metro Analytics composite market rankings, 2026-10-19)
Mortgage rates and the macro backdrop
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate eased to 7.32% on 2026-10-22 from 7.40% the previous observation, after reaching 7.40% on 10-08 and remaining there on 10-15. It is still above the September observations in the supplied series. The 15-year rate also moved down from its previous reading. The year-ago mortgage values are unavailable in this feed, so the mortgage comparison here is limited to the reported week-over-week readings and series history.
| Indicator | Latest | Previous | Year-ago value |
|---|
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate, 2026-10-22 | 7.32% | 7.40% | — |
| 15-year fixed mortgage rate, 2026-10-22 | 6.68% | 6.71% | — |
| Federal funds rate, 2026-09-01 | 3.75% | 3.63% | 4.22% |
| CPI inflation, 2026-09-01 | 4.02% | 3.71% | 3.02% |
| Unemployment rate, 2026-09-01 | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% |
The series for the 30-year rate rose through the supplied September and October observations before its latest dip. It began at 6.71% on 09-03, then recorded 6.76% on 09-10, 6.95% on 09-17, and 7.03% on 09-24. The October points were 7.28% on 10-01, 7.40% on 10-08, 7.40% on 10-15, and 7.32% on 10-22. In the other indicators, the federal funds rate and CPI inflation were higher than their previous readings, while unemployment was also higher than its previous reading. Compared with year-ago values, the federal funds rate and unemployment rate were lower, while CPI inflation was higher.
(FRED MORTGAGE30US, FRED MORTGAGE15US, FRED FEDFUNDS, FRED CPIAUCSL)
What the Redfin tracker shows
Redfin’s period ending 2026-10-18 pairs an increase in national sale prices with more inventory and fewer pending sales year over year. Those directions do not move together: the price measure was up 0.16%, inventory was up 2.01%, and pending sales were down 14.44%. The metro price changes underline how uneven the national result can be across places.
| Redfin national measure | Latest reading | Year-over-year change |
|---|
| Sale price | $390,614 | +0.16% |
| Inventory | 1,572,024 | +2.01% |
| Pending sales | 270,020 | -14.44% |
San Francisco, California, had the fastest sale-price growth in the listed metros at +12.87% year over year. Seattle, Washington, was the slowest at -6.22%. Between those endpoints, the faster list includes Detroit and New Brunswick at +6.94% each, Pittsburgh at +6.91%, and Cleveland at +5.75%. On the slower side, Charlotte was at -2.78%, Austin at -2.80%, Orlando at -3.82%, and San Jose at -4.66%.
| Faster metro | Sale-price change, year over year |
|---|
| San Francisco, CA metro area | +12.87% |
| Detroit, MI metro area | +6.94% |
| New Brunswick, NJ metro area | +6.94% |
| Pittsburgh, PA metro area | +6.91% |
| Cleveland, OH metro area | +5.75% |
| Slower metro | Sale-price change, year over year |
|---|
| Charlotte, NC metro area | -2.78% |
| Austin, TX metro area | -2.80% |
| Orlando, FL metro area | -3.82% |
| San Jose, CA metro area | -4.66% |
| Seattle, WA metro area | -6.22% |
(Redfin Housing Market Tracker, 2026-10-18)
What to watch next
For someone comparing markets, the useful takeaway is to separate local ranking momentum from national housing activity and financing conditions. The rankings put Cedar Park at the top and Newark at the bottom, while Redfin’s metro sale-price list puts San Francisco and Seattle at opposite ends. The national Redfin measures show prices and inventory rising year over year even as pending sales fell, and the latest 30-year rate is lower than its previous observation but above the early points in the supplied series.
| When comparing | Figures to keep in view |
|---|
| Local market position | Market estimate and hot, watch, or cool category |
| State context | The supplied state averages, led by MN at 5.0 |
| Recent sale-price direction | Redfin metro changes, from San Francisco at +12.87% to Seattle at -6.22% |
| National activity | Sale price, inventory, and pending sales for the period ending 2026-10-18 |
| Financing backdrop | 30-year and 15-year fixed mortgage rates dated 2026-10-22 |
These measures cover different dates and describe different things: Metro Analytics rankings are dated 2026-10-19, mortgage observations are dated 2026-10-22, and the Redfin tracker period ends 2026-10-18. A practical comparison should therefore look at the market estimate, the state and metro context, the Redfin direction, and the mortgage rate together rather than treating any one number as a complete picture. (Metro Analytics rankings; FRED; Redfin Housing Market Tracker)